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Solid phase polymerised PET, commonly used for production of
PET bottles, APET sheets and CPET sheets, has attained consumption
levels of almost 9 million tonnes in 2002. Almost 92-93% of this
consumption is dedicated to bottles manufactured by stretch blow
moulding process to produce crystal clear products. Only 7-8% of
the consumption is used for APET (Amorphous) or CPET (Crystalline)
sheets.
The market of PET bottles is predominantly driven by carbonated
drinks, though this forthcoming decade is likely to see higher growth
from the mineral water segment. Infact, North America, which is
way behind Europe for mineral water consumption has been showing
significant growth in the last couple of years. Beer packing, which
was expected to provide a very strong demand surge, currently has
a very small share. It is expected that only about 100KT of
PET bottles are presently used for beer. While sheet may grow much
more than bottles, it is unlikely that it would have more than 4% share
of the total PET market by 2010. The strong growth of mineral water
could help in increasing its share by about 3-5%. The carbonated
drinks although may lose some share, but would still continue to
be the major application of PET by 2010.
North America presently is the largest consumer of PET. However
Asia is expected to match North America in consumption by 2010,
if not already achieved a few years earlier. Infact, significant
capacity additions are being developed, particularly in China. Other
Asian countries like South Korea, Taiwan, India etc are also building
up more capacities. Infact China will reach the levels of more than
1.3 million tonne capacity by 2003. The enhanced capacity build
up could have an adverse effect on capacity utilization and hence
prices. However this may help in providing growth stimules in the
second half of this decade.
The capacity could increase from 11-12 million tonnes to almost
15 million tonnes, by 2005 while demand could go up to 11-11.5 million
tonnes. At this capacity utlization, the polymer manufacturer may
not be able to achive profits for reinvestment.
Most of the experts in PET believe that PET demand by 2010 would
reach a level of 17 million tonnes.
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